One Decision Changed the Election
This entry was posted on 6/13/2008 12:04 PM and is filed under Politics.
Because I believe that issues and substance should drive
elections instead of style and strategy, I don’t usually write about politics
for politics sake. But, I keep going
back to a single moment in the Democratic Presidential primary campaign. A decision was made, probably as long ago as last
fall, when Clinton was significantly ahead in the national polls, and it seemed
her race to lose. Barack Obama went one
way and Hillary Clinton went the other way, and the result of the entire
election was determined by their choices.
Barack Obama decided to target Iowa, believing that he could
win the first state to hold a contest.
Obama and his troops devised a system of grass roots,
feet-on-the-ground, door-to-door campaign tactics. This Time article does a great job of
detailing Obama’s strategy and supreme effort in Iowa. Their campaign actually called me a few times
and offered a meal and a trip on a bus to Iowa to canvass for the day.
Hillary Clinton just didn’t put forth the same type of
effort in Iowa; here is a Boston Globe article that criticizes her early
campaign strategy. Even after all of the
work by Obama and the lack of interest from Clinton, the Iowa Caucus was nearly
a three-way dead heat between Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. The delegate count was virtually even, with sixteen
for Obama, fifteen for Clinton, and fourteen for Edwards. The vote totals were a bit more lopsided,
with 38% for Obama, 30% for Edwards, and 29% for Clinton.
But, the point is that with minimal effort and organization,
Clinton could have achieved an Iowa victory in delegates and maybe even in
votes as well. She had money, and she
had supporters. If she had merely edged
out Obama, instead of the other way around, then the entire succeeding set of
election results probably would have been much different.
Instead, Obama made a truly inspiring victory speech that
night, and the rest is history.